Florida is expected to get walloped by another hurricane next week, just 10 days after it was hit by Hurricane Helene, which caused widespread storm surge and wind damage before it moved inland to cause devastating flooding.
The latest system, Tropical Storm Milton, formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Forecasters expect the storm to quickly strengthen into a hurricane and rush toward Florida in the next few days.
Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, declared a state of emergency in 35 counties ahead of the storm’s potential landfall.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Florida said Milton, which could become a hurricane on Monday, is expected to bring surge and high winds to the recovering west coast and serious flood risks to south and central Florida.
Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the NHC in Miami, said Milton could develop into a “potentially very impactful hurricane” and hit Florida’s Gulf coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Milton is expected to pack maximum sustained winds of 110mph when it makes landfall near St Petersburg and Tampa as a category 2 to category 3 hurricane, Rhome said. Category 3 and above are considered “major” hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Milton’s center was about 860 miles (1,385km) west-south-west of Tampa, Florida, early Sunday, heading east at 5mph with maximum sustained winds of 60mph (95kph), the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
“Milton is moving slowly but is expected to strengthen rapidly,” the center said. “There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.”
“Regardless of where the storm tracks, it’s going to produce a large area of heavy rain and potential flooding,” Rhome said on Saturday.
“Even if this doesn’t realize a high-end wind core, it will have the potential for significant surge inundation,” Andrew Moore, a meteorologist for Arch Reinsurance, wrote on X.
A major factor in predicting Milton’s increasing strength is that surface sea temperatures, or SSTs, did not cool off after Helene passed over and remain significantly above normal.
“Most of the Gulf is above-average SST still, and the loop current is prominent. Shelf south of Tampa is extremely warm as well. Lots of potential fuel,” wrote Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the hurricane research department at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In Florida, since many of the 35 counties now in a state of emergency for Milton are still recovering from Hurricane Helene, DeSantis asked the Florida division of emergency management and the Florida department of transportation to coordinate all available resources and personnel to supplement local communities as they expedite debris removal.
The Gulf of Mexico is expected to give yet another storm the "red carpet treatment" for rapid intensification. #TD14/#AL92/#Milton will experience a sea surface temperature and potential intensity environment that is rarely seen during September (let alone October). #FLwx https://t.co/F4bKAAO7rh pic.twitter.com/0dY5de8oZy
— Kieran Bhatia (@BhatiaKieran) October 5, 2024
Separately, the NHC said on Sunday another storm, Hurricane Kirk, diminished to a category 2 hurricane in the open Atlantic early, with top winds of 105mph (165kph), sending large swells and “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” to Bermuda and northward along the US and Canadian coasts. Hurricane Leslie also was moving north-west over the open Atlantic, with top winds of 85mph (140kph) but posing no threats to land.