The Indian prime minister’s hopes of his party gaining power in Kashmir were dashed on Tuesday as it emerged that his BJP had lost the first election held since the national government stripped the region of its autonomy and statehood.
The elections instead delivered a resounding victory to India’s main opposition party, Congress, and its regional partner, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), which had come together in a alliance to defeat Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), which also rules at the national level.
According to results released on Tuesday afternoon, the alliance between Congress and the JKNC won 48 seats, giving them a comfortable majority, while the BJP won 29.
The Himalayan region of Kashmir has been disputed between India and Pakistan since independence, with three wars fought over the territory, and it is now partially controlled by both countries. Since the 1990s, it has also been home to a violent militant insurgency with an allegiance to, and backed by, Pakistan, which has left tens of thousands dead, and it remains a hotbed of conflict.
Indian-administered Kashmir had not held local assembly elections for a decade. The polls, which began in phases in September, were seen as particularly significant as they were the first since 2019, when the Modi government revoked article 370, which had given Jammu and Kashmir a special form of autonomy since independence.
The Modi government’s decision to revoke Kashmir’s autonomy had been a longstanding pledge of his Hindu nationalist party. The move was followed by a draconian crackdown and was met with anger by swathes of Kashmiris, who viewed it as an attack on Kashmiri identity and an attempt to change the demographics of the country’s only Muslim-majority region.
While local assembly elections in Kashmir have historically been marred by boycotts and low voter turnouts, many voters described this as the first opportunity to have a political voice since the removal of article 370 five years ago and to express their dissatisfaction with the Modi government’s actions. The polls were defined by boisterous campaigning and peaceful voting, with a turnout of 64%.
Waqar Ahmad Wani, a student from Srinagar, said: “In the last five years, the BJP has unleashed harsh treatment on Kashmiris. There was no liberty to speak out on anything; we hope that will change.”
Speaking to reporters after the results were announced, Omar Abdullah, the leader of the JKNC, who is poised to become chief minister, declared that “democracy has prevailed in Jammu and Kashmir after a long time” and called on Modi to restore statehood to the region.
“With this mandate, one thing is clear, that the BJP targeted and tried to weaken us, but their own existence has been wiped out,” said Abdullah, who was among the political leaders jailed by the Modi government in the 2019 crackdown.
The win is likely to be a boost for Congress and the opposition INDIA alliance, which already outperformed expectations in the general election in June that returned Modi and the BJP to power for a third term but with a reduced majority.
Despite the loss, the BJP leadership in Kashmir was positive about the results, particularly in the Hindu-majority areas of the region, where the party dominated.
“This has been the BJP’s best performance so far,” said Jitendra Singh, a senior BJP leader and a minister in the Modi government. “We contested this election purely on the issue of development and tried to rise above caste, creed and religion, giving a new culture to this election.”
The BJP also had reason to celebrate elsewhere as it managed to hold on to power in the state of Haryana, where local election results were also announced on Tuesday, ensuring the party’s continued dominance of the so-called north Indian “Hindi heartland”.
Thanks to the measures brought in by Modi after revoking article 370 in 2019, the central BJP government still has considerable powers over Kashmir, while the regional assembly has largely been stripped of its influence and holds more of a ceremonial role.
Abdul Majeed Malik, a Kashmiri voter, said he doubted the elections would bring any significant change but said there was “a relief that the BJP has been contained”.
“This government can work as a buffer between New Delhi and Kashmiri people,” he said. “They can at least stop further assault on our identity and rights.”
