Cleverly, Badenoch and Jenrick stay in Tory leadership race as Tugendhat knocked out – as it happened

• James Cleverly has topped the latest MPs’ vote in the Conservative leadership contest, in a surprise set of results that makes him the new favourite to replace Rishi Sunak.

• The Treasury minister James Murray has rejected calls to delay plans to add VAT to private school fees, saying the government needed to start raising funds as soon as possible in order to deliver on its educational ambitions for state schools.

• Twenty-five black, Asian and minority ethnic MPs have written to the home secretary telling her that the framing of Britain’s immigration legislation “cannot be uncoupled from racism and the exclusion of people of colour”.

• The future of Britain’s biggest road scheme, the Lower Thames Crossing, has been thrown into fresh uncertainty after ministers delayed the deadline for a decision on whether to go ahead by seven months.

• Greenpeace UK has welcomed the news that John Woodcock (Lord Walney) is no longer serving as the government’s independent adviser on political violence and disruption. (See 2.59pm.) In a statement the group’s co-executive director Areeba Hamid said:

Lord Walney’s chief contribution as the government’s ‘anti-extremism’ adviser was to come up with a series of absurd proposals on how to criminalise peaceful protest. As our overcrowded prisons fill up with climate protesters, some facing longer terms than violent criminals, it’s clear that the last thing ministers need is more of the same advice from him.

• Political parties will be required to justify offering peerages under new rules being drafted by the government to overhaul the image of the House of Lords.

• Boris Johnson has been ridiculed for claiming that he had to embark on a controvesial, and expensive, refurbishment of the 11 Downing Street flat when he was PM because it “looked like a crack den”. His predecessor in the flat was Theresa May, and on social media various people have pointed out that she’s not the type to live like that. This is from Christian Calgie from the Express.

And this is from the Tory peer Daniel Finkelstein.

But, according to the LBC transcript, Johnson actually said:

Frankly, once I pulled the carpets out of the flat in Number 11, which is where we lived, because Dylan was then in the stages of being — the whole thing was looking a bit like a crack den to be totally honest, and it needed to be refurbished.

Johnson was referring to Dylan, his dog, being housetrained, and he seems to be admitting he personally made the flat a mess, by tearing out the carpets.

Keir Starmer is now about an unpopular as Nigel Farage, according to polling released by YouGov today.

Here is some more commentary on the result of the ballot for the Tory leadership.

From Daniel Finkelstein, the Tory peer and and Times columnist

This was broadly (as Times colleagues know) what I thought would happen today. Although it looks close between second & third, I think Kemi has an advantage. Few of Tugendhat’s voters will go to Jenrick & Cleverly can’t spare any votes to help him (he’d be the weaker opponent).

From Christopher Hope from GB News

Interesting that 120 out of 121 Conservative MPs voted.
Given that Rishi Sunak definitely did NOT vote it means that chairman Richard Fuller has voted (he didn’t in the past two rounds).
It also raises possibility that the candidates could be tied at 40 votes each tomorrow…

There is precedent for a tie in a Tory leadership ballot. It happened in 2001, when the late Michael Ancram and David Davis were tied in last place. There was no provision in the rules for what should happen, and so Michael Spicer, the 1922 Committee chair, ordered a rerun the following day, with the proviso that both candidates would drop out if they were tied again. But on the second vote Ancram was eliminated.

From Esther Webber from Politico

Feels like this could (just about) be good news for Kemi - Tugendhat having recently beefed with Jenrick, while Cleverly’s backers might also be keen to see off Jenrick

From Tom Harwood from GB News

Tomorrow will be absolutely fascinating.

So many dynamics at play:
Is there still a ‘stop Kemi’ vote?
Has hardline ECHR position damaged Jenrick with MPs?
Do Tugendhat MPs who want Cleverly try to be ‘clever’ and back a different candidate attempting to engineer an easier final?

9h ago17.52 CEST

Scotland's mental health minister accepts serious staffing problems in NHS psychiatry

Severin Carrell

Scotland’s mental health minister has said there is “absolutely no doubt” there is a serious staffing crisis in NHS psychiatry which has led to record spending on locums, which hit £35m last year.

An investigation by the Guardian and BBC Scotland revealed on Monday that Scotland’s NHS boards have spent £134m on locum psychiatrists over the last five years, largely drawn from recruitment agencies and private health companies.

Maree Todd was challenged about the findings by Edward Mountain, from the Scottish Conservatives, and Paul Sweeney, from Scottish Labour, at Holyrood on Tuesday afternoon.

Mountain said the data, which established that spending on locums and emergency cover was increasing year on year, showed mental health services were “at breaking point” and the consequence of poor work-force planning.

Sweeney said the response to the staffing crisis was “an extortionate sticking plaster of spending over £130m on locum psychiatrists”, with boards paying up to £837 an hour to plug the gaps. “Is the minister’s idea of a robust NHS workforce strategy, anything resembling that sort of figure?”

Todd said she is “absolutely in no doubt” there were recruitment challenges in NHS psychiatry and “certainly” accepted concerns that some locums were paid to do online consultations from outside the UK, including one who dialled in from India.

“I am absolutely aware of the challenges which exist across the workforce and which can be particularly marked in more remote and rural areas,” she said, adding that as a former mental health nurse for NHS Highlands, she was acutely aware of the problem.

She said Neil Gray, the Scottish health secretary, was meeting the Royal College of Psychiatrists on Thursday to discuss the staffing crisis, while several working groups had been formed to investigate longer-term solutions, on improved recruitment of psychiatrists and on the extensive use of locums.

Todd said medical school psychiatry places were full and significant sums being spent across mental health services in the NHS. She added:

There is undoubtedly a rise in demand that we have seen in some parts of the country. These are pressures which could not have been predicted. So that relates to the reduction in stigma associated with these causes, but it undoubtedly adds to the challenge in managing the current situation.

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Sunder Katwala, head of the British Future thinktank, has posted some interesting number-crunching on tomorrow’s vote on social media.

40 votes *guarantees* a top two place. But how many it takes to finish second depends on what the leader gets. Eg, if Cleverly got 50 votes (+11) then 36 votes (secure 5-6 of 10 votes) would be enough to secure second place

Cleverly 39
Jenrick 31
Badenoch 30
[Tugendhat 20]

Eg, hypothetically, If Cleverly was net +20 then 31 votes would be enough for second place.

The two paths to secure second place are to win a higher share of Tom T voters and/or to make a net gain of direct switchers from your rival (eg Jenrick to Badenoch voters)

On the arithmetic, if all of the Tugendhat votes split +10 each to Jenrick and Badenoch, they would then both knock Cleverly out, 41-40-39!

Obviously, this isn’t going to happen politically, but the mathematic threshold to guarantee qualification is 40 rather than 39!

Technically 41 now to *guarantee* a top two slot now that 120 MPs out of 121 are voting rather than 118, 119 in the first two ballots

Team Cleverly would need a clear number of Tom T pledges to be in a position to consider starting to meddle in who his opponent is.

It makes more sense to just try to maximise votes and momentum - and let other MPs mess around at the margin if they want to.

According to Hugo Gye from the i, the Robert Jenrick camp is arguing that he should be in the final ballot because he has support from all wings of the party.

Jenrick campaign source: “Robert is now in prime position to make the final two. MPs want seriousness and competence. That’s why he’s won support from across the party so far - from Danny Kruger on the right to Vicky Atkins on the left.”

But the Kemi Badenoch camp is arguing that rightwingers need to unite behind her as the candidate for the right, he says.

Badenoch campaign source: “There are three candidates left in this contest, two are gaining votes and one is going backwards and losing support. The right of the Conservative Party now needs to coalesce around Kemi.”

James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch have both posted messages on social media paying tribute to Tom Tugendhat.

Cleverly said:

@TomTugendhat is a close friend who I was privileged to work with at the Home Office. He ran a great campaign and will without doubt have a big role to play in our Party’s future.

And Badenoch said:

Commiserations to my friend @TomTugendhat. He ran a great campaign and led the debate on security and how we stand tall on the world stage in volatile times.

I’m pleased to have increased support and grateful to all of my colleagues who voted for me. This is a very tight race and I’ll continue fighting for every vote. It’s also clear from every independent poll and survey, the support from members for my @Renewal2030 campaign is surging.

And Tom Tugendhat has posted this about his defeat.

To everyone who backed our campaign - thank you!

Your energy, your ideas and your support have shown a vision of what our party could become.

Our campaign has ended but our commitment to our country continues.

James Cleverly has posted this about his victory in the third round ballot today.

I’m grateful to all my colleagues for their support today, and I’m pleased to be through to the next round.

The job’s not finished.

I’m excited to keep spreading our positive Conservative message.

For much of the summer Robert Jenrick was the clear bookmaker’s favourite in the Tory leadership contest. Going back to a point before the general election, Kemi Badenoch was favourite for a long time, but the odds shifted when political insiders started to take the view she was unlikely to make the final ballot.

Even a week ago, at Conservative conference, Jenrick was still ahead. The big news, in polling terms, this time last week was that Jenrick had just about caught up with Kemi Badenoch in terms of popularity with members.

But the rise of James Cleverly (a distant third in the race this time last week) has been extraordinary. There were 16 votes up for grabs in the ballot this afternoon (MPs who voted for Mel Stride before he was eliminated). Cleverly’s vote went up by 18 – suggesting he could have picked up the entire Stride haul, and won over two extra people too. In reality, some of the Stride votes may have gone elsewhere, and there is likely to have been some churn (people who voted for one candidate last time switching to another). Still, it is close to a clean sweep.

Last week it was clear that Cleverly had “won” the final hustings by delivering the best speech on the final day. But I don’t think there were any commentators who realised on the day quite to what extent that speech would upend the race.

Now Cleverly and Badenoch both have a path to victory. For Jenrick, it is much harder.

A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome at the weekend implies that, if Cleverly and Badenoch are on the final ballot, Badenoch will win narrowly. Here are the figures, which suggest she is ahead of him by 48% to 42%, with don’t knows at 9%. If Badenoch can make the final ballot tomorrow, by overtaking Jenrick, and if she can hold this lead with members, she can win.

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Cleverly’s best chance of becoming leader would involve going into a final ballot against Jenrick. These figures suggest he would win quite easily, as they put him on 54% against Jenrick’s 36%. That means Cleverly supporters may be tempted to lend votes to Jenrick to get him over the line tomorrow. This happened in 2019, when Boris Johnson wanted to be up against Jeremy Hunt, not Michael Gove, in the final ballot. But it’s a risky enterprise.

For Jenrick, there is no obvious route to victory as things stand now.

Of course, a survey is just a survey and, as the last week has shown, in an electoral contest people change their mind about the candidates. Perhaps Jenrick could make the final two and turn things around. But today he’s trailing.

Here is some comment on the results from the latest Tory leadership ballot.

From my colleague Pippa Crerar

The 20 MPs who backed Tugendhat will now decide who to back in next round.
Many would assume James Cleverly as other more centrist candidate in race.
But they may have views on who they want him to go up against: Badenoch or Jenrick?

From ITV’s Robert Peston

Cleverly now a shoo-in to be in the ballot of Tory members, because most of Tugendhat’s 20 will transfer to him. The battle on the party’s right between Jenrick with 31 and Badenoch with 30 will be something to behold over the next 24 hours

From the Sunday Times’ Harry Yorke

Another Tory leadership contest producing quite the potential upset

Kemi Badenoch almost stationary but Jenrick has gone significantly backwards -- not something anyone was predicting before this afternoon

Here are the results.

James Cleverly: 39 (up 18 from last round)

Robert Jenrick: 31 (down 2)

Kemi Badenoch: 30 (up 2)

Tom Tugendhat: 20 (down 1)

Bob Blackman, chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, is due to read out the results of today’s Tory leadership ballot shortly.

Labour was not ready for government, in organisational terms, Peter Mandelson has said.

Speaking on the Times’ How to Win an Election podcast, Mandelson, who was a key fixer when New Labour was in government, said:

One of the problems for the Starmer administration is that there was an ambiguity about what the role of Number 10 was right at the beginning. And Keir had given a signal that he didn’t want to run a command and control Number 10 operation. He wanted to give more freedom, more autonomy to departments. He didn’t want to second guess everyone. He wanted to give people wriggle room. Well, I’m afraid that the great ship of state called the British Nation and Government doesn’t work like that.

[It] requires a very good, quite complex, quite sophisticated machine at Number 10. And the truth is that for all the preparation that was made for government by the Starmer team, it wasn’t done to the extent or in the way it should have been. There wasn’t enough sort of pinning down and agreement amongst everyone as to how it should operate. And once in government, you know, people’s different roles were not frankly communicated as they needed to be. So, it wasn’t all joined up, I’m afraid.

This is an implicit criticism of Sue Gray, who was replaced on Sunday as Starmer’s chief of staff. Gray was in charge of the transition into government when Labour was in opposition.

Mandelson also praised Morgan McSweeney, Gray’s replacement, saying he would be “a very hard taskmasker” for people working in No 10.

Morgan McSweeney, I believe, he’s the sort of person who knows what excellence is and he will insist on having the best people in the jobs. He will always be available to them. He will always counsel them. He will always give them advice, but he will expect them to get on with their jobs and to deliver. And if they do, they’ll be fine and safe. And if they don’t, then I’m afraid they will be out. He’s a very hard taskmaster.

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The former Labour MP John Woodcock is no longer the government’s independent adviser on political violence and disruption, according to Adam Bienkov from Byline Times. The Home Office has confirmed that Woodcock has left the post.

Woodcock was elected a Labour MP in 2010 but he was very critical of Jeremy Corbyn when Corbyn was leader, left the party partly as a result of disciplinary proceedings that he said were politically motivated and at the time of the 2019 election urged people to vote for Boris Johnson, not Corbyn. He was subsequently given a peerage, as Lord Walney, and he became the political violence adviser in 2020.

In May this year he published a report with recommendations that were criticised as draconian. The then Conservative government only gave it a lukewarm reception, and Labour has not embraced the recommendations either.

In the Commons MPs are debating a Conservative opposition day motion criticising the government’s plan to impose VAT on school fees. This is one issue on which the Tories are united; all four leadership candidates have opposed the move, and said they want to reverse it.

The debate was opened by Damian Hinds, the shadow education secretary, who is not a leadership candidate.

Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, was criticised for a post on X where she justified the tax by referring to private schools cutting back on embossed stationery and swimming pools to help fund it.

Our state schools need teachers more than private schools need embossed stationery.

Our children need mental health support more than private schools need new pools.

Our students need careers advice more than private schools need AstroTurf pitches

The Conservative MP Graham Stuart said this was a “malicious and spiteful tweet” and he said James Murray, the Treasury minister speaking on behalf of the government, should apologise for it on Phillipson’s behalf.

But Murray replied:

I, nor any of my colleagues, will make any apology for wanting to improve state education across this country to make sure that the aspiration of every parent in our country to get the best possible education for their children can be fulfilled.

More in Common have now published their voting intention polling figures mentioned earlier. This is from Luke Tryl’s, its director, who also points out that the combined total for parties on the right (47% – Conservatives 28%, plus Reform UK 19%) is almost the same as the combined total for parties on the left (49% – Labour 29%, Lib Dems 11%, Greens 7% and SNP 2%).

James Cleverly is seen by voters as the Tory leadership candidate most likely to become prime minister, according to new polling by Ipsos..

In its write-up, Ipsos says:

When asked which leadership candidate would be most likely to become prime minister if they become Conservative leader, one in five Britons say James Cleverly (21%) marking a 7-point increase since late September 2024 before Conservative party conference. Robert Jenrick trails behind at 10%, with Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch at 7% each. The main shift here being between those saying don’t know (-6) and those saying Mr Cleverly is most likely (+7).

However, more than one in four still say they don’t know (27%) and 28% think none of the candidates are likely to become prime minister.

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But the polling also suggests, as the public heard and read about the last four candidates in the contest while the Tory conference was happening, all of them saw their net favourability ratings with the public at large go down. Cleverly’s ratings only fell by 2 points, from -16 to -18. But Tom Tugendhat’s fell by 6 points, and Kemi Badenoch’s and Robert Jenrick’s both fell by 8 points.

On this measure, Badenoch is the most unpopular candidate, with a net favourability rating of -26, followed by Jenrick (-24), Tugendhat (-19) and Cleverly (-18).

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Like many Guardian readers, including a lot of you BTL, Anushka Asthana, ITV’s political editor, is annoyed by reports that suggest Sue Gray’s departure is best understood as part of a boy’s club plot and Keir Starmer having a problem with women. She has posted these on social media.

Sorry to rant but the whole “boys club” thing irritates me. Of course there is a lot of focus on the Keir’s, Morgan’s and (admittedly numerous) Matt’s but as I’ve discovered Keir Starmer would NOT be PM without the senior women in the operation 1/

Firstly the entire campaign was field directed by a woman. Yeah yeah- totally true that they put two men in charge (don’t they so often!) but Hollie Ridley basically ran the mechanics of the campaign 2/

The strategy director was Deborah Mattinson, the now party chair Ellie Reeves was critical, and as for the new deputy chief of staffs- Jill Cuthbertson and Vidhya Alakeson … 3/

Ask anyone inside Labour and they’ll tell you that Jill Cuthbertson is about as powerful as they come. She was by Gordon Brown’s side in 2010 & Ed Miliband’s in 2015 and was beside Starmer’s at almost every key moment of campaign. She helped make Zelensky meet happen for eg 4/

The turnaround in the reputation with business (which was hard got and is now on shaky ground) was led by Vidhya Alakeson and Katie Martin (Rachel Reeves’ chief of staff) and the CX herself. Alakeson has run big organisations previously 5/

Obviously Sue Gray as chief of staff was also central to that (and her deputy- also a woman- Helene Reardon Bond) so its not surprising her supporters feel she’s been badly treated but they should blame the man who made decision not the women in the team!? 6/

I think the “boys club” does exist in links between boys on either side of the political and media fences - which means the roles of men are so often amplified (and obviously often with reason- I’ve written myself about McSweeney today) but it’s not true that it’s all men 7/

And for what it’s worth I’ve had more women moan about Sue Gray’s role than men. But also true that almost all these people- men & women- have been in Downing st from the start of this operation- so surely all carry blame for what has gone wrong? & Starmer ultimately in charge 8/

Btw that doesn’t mean I think Labour don’t have a woman leader problem - and I talk about this in my book. I’m sure the party- wanting to opt for “safe” option post 2019- at least in part saw Starmer as safe because as a man he was seen as more prime ministerial 9/

Anushka has got more about this in her new book about the election (reviewed here).